I have been asked by several people about my thoughts on the US election cycle. As many of my friends on other social media know, I tend to be fairly quiet, publicly, about politics where they are not science related. However, after some careful consideration I have decided to post something. As I am not well versed in the research on politics, I am going to keep my comments brief (for me).
1. Donald Trump is the American Dream.
Donald Trump has surprised many political watchers by his success where in other years candidates who have done and said what he has would have been out the door long ago. A part of this is the pressing need for change - particularly within the Republican party. However, I believe a good part of his Teflon coating is his appeal to the American Dream. The American Dream is pulling yourself up by your bootstraps - which despite his actual background to the contrary many people seem to believe he has done. It's about having your name as a brand everywhere - which he actually does. It's about having troubles and being successful out the other end of them - which people see his multiple companies going bankrupt as him going through. It is about being able to do anything with your life - which apparently includes being President of the US when you are unqualified to do so. There is this idea that he is a "normal American" who has gotten successful by standing alone on his own two feet and is now running for president. The fact that the son of a rich man made a name for himself as a business icon and then chose to use the money and influence to repeatedly insult everyone and anyone is apparently representative of the American Dream scares me. And not only me, it scares Tony Schwartz, Trump's ghost writer who gave an interview with the New Yorker about Trump's lack of qualifications for the presidency and his deep concerns.
2. Fact is Flexible
The number of factually inaccurate statements made during this election cycle deeply concerns me. I have seen it as well in the Brexit vote here in the UK. Yes there are at least two sides to every truth and there many interpretations of the facts. However, sometimes facts are facts. For example, the number of Syrian refugees that enter the US legally and their locations are facts and Trump has repeatedly gotten them wrong. The trade deficit with China is a fact. Trump has gotten that wrong. Other things while not as clear as the above three are pretty factually loose such as Trump's claim that Medicare could save more than it actually even spends a year in prescription costs by negotiating prescription costs with drug companies. I'm all for negotiating the drug companies going for no cost drugs to people on Medicare, but I doubt it is going to happen, so Trump should check his figures. Finally, Trump has made statements that have no backing in the facts he uses, such as his claim that over 40% of Muslims want to see harm done to the US based on some poll. After being asked, he cannot produce the poll to even have a discussion about it. Being in the public spotlight so much and needing to remember lots of figures is difficult, so I understand that everyone makes mistakes about facts, misremembers a number, or thinks there was a poll to back up something they were talking about at the pub. However, when confronted with being factually wrong, I would expect at least a comment of "oops I got it wrong, no one is perfect." However Trump regularly demeans and makes fun of individuals who correct factual statements. Trump is not the only one who is using flexible facts to mislead people, but he is the biggest offender in the US cycle. After seeing the number of people who were factually mislead during the Brexit vote and then the realization that the facts were wrong, I am deeply concerned about Trump's attitude toward facts and even more so to the people who come out correcting his facts.
3. Every Vote is Real
Occasionally over the years I have met and talked to people who voted for something as a "statement" vote. By this I mean voting for something that you don't want to actually happen, but you do it to shake things up. By far the most people I have ever heard of doing this was at the Brexit vote. People actually came out saying things like "I didn't think my leave vote would count" and "I just wanted to say I was unhappy about the current situation, I didn't think that enough people would vote to leave so my vote wouldn't matter." I have no data if the number of people who felt this way would have changed the Brexit vote, but theoretically it could have. I see the same things in stuff people are saying about Trump - things like "I don't want him as president, but he won't actually get it so I'll vote for him to show my displeasure with the system." I'm all for expressing your opinions and thoughts about the system. However, theoretically (and hopefully practically) every vote counts. If you choose not to vote, it is your choice. If you do vote, vote for the person who you WANT to see as president. Don't regret your vote later by voting for something you don't really want just to make a statement. Find another way to make a productive statement.
I have many issues with a number of things about this election cycle - particularly in regards to Trump's antagonistic, xenophobic, aggressively obnoxious bullying and the GOP's anti-science, anti-logic, anti-evidence, anti-women, anti-LGBTQ, pro-forcing Christianity onto everyone public platform. But those points are more one sided - the points above apply equally regardless of if you are conservative or liberal. I'll end by linking to a group of people much, much more qualified to speak about the issues of this election cycle - political historians. A number of them have done videos in the past week about Trump and this election cycle and posted them on Facebook through Historians on Donald Trump.
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